NLCS Game 4: Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction
The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in Game 4 of the best-of-seven National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium Wednesday. First pitch is slated for 8:08 p.m. ET (TBS). Let's analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Dodgersodds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Dodgers rallied for a 6-5 home victory in Game 3 Tuesday, cutting their NLCS deficit to 2 games to 1. 1B Cody Bellinger hit a game-tying, three-run homer in the bottom of the eighth. Three batters later, RF Mookie Betts plated the go-ahead (and eventual winning) run with an RBI double.
The Braves are going with a bullpen game Wednesday night and haven't named their opener yet. Three main possibilities are LHP A.J. Minter, (3-6, 3.78 ERA, 52 1/3 IP), LHP Drew Smyly (11-4, 4.48 ERA, 126 2/3 IP) and RHP Huascar Ynoa (4-6, 4.05 ERA, 91 IP).
- Minter pitched in two games of this series already, combining for 2 scoreless innings with 1 H, 2 BB and 3 K in Games 2 and 3.
- Minter career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 0-0, 5.79 ERA (4 2/3 IP, 3 ER) in five relief appearances
- Smyly career vs. Dodgers: 0-1, 4.24 ERA (17 IP, 8 ER) in three starts and two relief appearances, including a loss in an Aug. 30 start at Dodger Stadium (4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 4 HR)
- Ynoa faced the Dodgers only once in his career, allowing just 1 hit in 4 scoreless innings in Game 3 of the 2020 NLCS
Dodgers LHP Julio Urias (20-3, 2.96 ERA regular season) makes his second start and fourth appearance of this postseason. He blew a save in Sunday's Game 2 loss, allowing 2 runs on 3 hits in the eighth inning when the Braves tied the game at 4-all before winning 5-4 in the bottom of the ninth.
- Regular season: 1.02 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 across 185 2/3 IP in 32 starts
- 2021 postseason: 1-0, 3.60 ERA (10 IP, 4 ER), 9 H, 1 BB, 12 K in one start and two relief appearances.
- Career vs. Braves (regular season): 2-0, 1.80 ERA (15 IP, 3 ER), 9 H, 3 BB, 14 K in four outings, including two starts
Braves at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction
- Money line: Braves +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Dodgers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-117) | Dodgers -1.5 (-103)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Dodgers 3, Braves 2
Money line (ML)
BET LOS ANGELES (- 230) to WIN a HALF UNIT.
The Dodgers were 5 outs away from falling into a 3-0 hole before their 4-run eighth inning in Game 3. Now they have the momentum and will be trotting out the majors' only 20-game winner of the season to the mound in Urias.
Urias was 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA (8 IP, 1 ER) in one start and one relief appearance against the Braves in last year's NLCS. He won Game 3, pitching one-run ball for five innings, and won the deciding Game 7, tossing three hitless innings over the final three frames.
BACK ATLANTA +1.5 (- 117) to WIN a HALF UNIT.
- Regular season: Braves 78-83 | Dodgers 82-80
This may seem odd since I'm backing the Dodgers money line, but the Braves are 3-0 ATS in this series and 6-1 ATS in the postseason. They are also 53-31 ATS on the road in 2021, including the playoffs.
The Dodgers are 4-5 ATS this postseason and 44-41 ATS at home.
UNDER 8.5 (- 120) is the STRONGEST PLAY - 1½ times your usual wager.
- Regular season: Braves 74-78-9 | Dodgers 71-81-10
- Postseason: Braves 3-4 | Dodgers 4-5
Both teams were Under teams this season, and the Under is 43-36-6 at Dodger Stadium this year.
The Under was also 9-4-1 in Urias' final 14 starts of the regular season, and 6-1-1 in his final 8 home starts.
|SINCE JULY 8|
|*- SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment|
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