Hurricane Dorian bypassed the mountains of Hispaniola and could impact Florida on Labor Day as a major hurricane.

UPDATE 2 p.m.: Dorian has intensified to a Category 1 hurricane near St. Thomas with wind speeds of 75 mph. 

LIVE Dorian tracking map >>

Previous story: The National Hurricane Center expects Dorian to intensify to a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds as it approaches Florida’s coast early Monday. 

The center’s 11 a.m update shows Dorian intensifying east of the southeastern Bahamas and reaching 115-mph wind speeds Saturday north of Grand Bahama. 

The forecast track has shifted slightly to the south from the 5 a.m. prediction. The Florida Keys remains out of the cone of uncertainty, but areas from Homestead to Savannah, Ga. are in the potential path of the storm.

 

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The National Hurricane Center expects Dorian to intensify to a Category 2 hurricane off Florida’s coast Monday, with 100 mph sustained winds. 

LIVE Dorian tracking map >>

The 8 a.m. forecast holds with the 5 a.m. forecast shift tracking north, leaving the Florida Keys out of the cone of uncertainty, but has areas from Miami to Savannah, Ga. in the potential path of the storm. 

Although the center of the cone points toward Flagler County, Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast remain areas of possible landfall. There is about a 230-mile error in the track forecast at day 5.

While forecast models had Dorian on a consistent track Tuesday, NHC hurricane specialist John Cangialosi said in the Wednesday forecast that there is now considerable disagreement in each run and that “confidence in the long term track remains low.” 

“In addition, users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast points as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles,” he said. 

As of 5 a.m. Wednesday, Dorian was 85 miles southeast of St. Croix with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Meteorologists from the National Hurricane Center say Dorian is expected to strengthen, nearing hurricane strength when it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later Wednesday.  

In addition to Puerto Rico, a hurricane watch has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

On Wednesday morning, models showed Dorian becoming a hurricane in about two days, before it hits Florida. Models show it could be off the coast just south of Daytona Beach by Saturday night. Much of South Florida, however, is still in the cone of probability.