For the first time in 22 years, August may make history, according to a new hurricane forecast released Monday.
Despite signs last week that the tropics might be waking, dry Saharan air in the Atlantic basin has continued to throttle development.
For the first time in 22 years, there’s a chance that no named storms will form this month, according to a new hurricane forecast released Monday.
RELATED: The Palm Beach Post’s 2019 hurricane tracking map
Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project is predicting near normal or below normal activity for the next two weeks, noting that models show no storms developing this week and continued dryness next week.
Jonathan Erdman, a meteorologist for Weather.com, said that only two Augusts since 1950 have failed to generate a single Atlantic storm. Those were 1961 and 1997.
“Three storms have formed each August, on average, over the past 69 years,” Erdman says in a Weather.com column. “One or two of those later would become hurricanes, with one becoming at least Category 3 intensity in a typical August.”
0 Atlantic named storms in 2019 since Barry on July 14. The last time that the Atlantic had no named storm activity from July 15 - August 19 was 1982.#hurricanepic.twitter.com/Wf5he7uPyj— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach)August 19, 2019
Subtropical Storm Andrea came to life in May, followed by Hurricane Barry and Tropical Depression Three in July.
“If you haven’t heard much about the hurricane season since Barry, it’s not your imagination,” Erdman said.
Last week, it looked like weakening wind shear in the tropical Atlantic and a reduction in Saharan dust might trigger a storm or two to form.
But both the wind shear and dry air seems to be sticking around.
AccuWeather hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said last week that there were “atmospheric booby traps” that continued to thwart development despite the possibility for more hospitable conditions.
“While we don’t foresee development over the next few days, we can’t rule out something slowly taking shape over the central Atlantic beyond this week and beyond due to the overall decrease in wind shear, dry air and dust across the Atlantic basin,” Kottlowski said.
A bustle of showers and thunderstorms over Costa Rica last week that had the potential of moving into the Gulf of Mexico to form a low pressure system is now expected to go west into the Pacific.
And anything moving off Africa this week will run into dry air.
RELATED: NOAA hurricane forecast update: With death of El Niño, expect a more active season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration changed its hurricane prediction earlier this month to a forecast for a more active season based on the untimely death of El Niño. El Niño, the hurricane-thwarting climate pattern, was expected to last into fall.
“It is important to remember that sometimes Mother Nature throws a switch, and systems suddenly start to develop,” said meteorologist Bryan Norcross in a Facebook post Tuesday.
Norcross is credited with saving lives during 1992′s Hurricane Andrew as he stayed on the air through the Cat 5 hurricane. He noted Tuesday that Andrew was a struggling tropical storm three days before landfall.
“What eventually happened was not even a remote idea,” Norcross noted.
TROPICAL UPDATE: The tropical Atlantic and the#Caribbean remain quiet. Watching in the#Gulf and north Atlantic for a slight chance of development. 27 years ago today, Tropical Storm#Andrew had no circulation. It was 3 1/2 days from landfall. More athttps://t.co/t7y8GK14gzpic.twitter.com/eGCGg3JFWv— Bryan Norcross (@bnorcrossWPLG)August 20, 2019
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